NYISO Creating More Access to Renewables

On July 11, New York celebrated the commissioning of the Empire State Transmission line. The 20-mile line connects the Dysinger switchyard in Royalton to the East Stolle switchyard in Elma, creating a new transmission hub in Western New York (see Figure 1). The $180 million power transmission line upgrade enables an additional 3,700 MWs of renewable energy to be transmitted throughout the state.

What is Driving the Increased Load in Texas?

This summer, it is clear how much the state of Texas has grown over the last few years. When Texas first deregulated its power grid about 20 years ago, the population of Texas was around 20 million. By 2010, it had grown to just over 25 million, and by 2020 it was just over 29 million. Texas is actually expected to hit 30 million this year, a growth of about 50% in 20 years. With this kind of population growth, it is no wonder that the total load on the ERCOT grid this summer is setting all-time records, it is just the frequency and magnitude of those records being broken that caught many of us by surprise.

PJM Summer Spot Prices Now Higher Than Winter

Anyone who has entered into a new electricity agreement in the last twelve months knows that prices are between two and three times higher than previous contracts. One year ago, wholesale electricity for calendar year 2023 was trading at $30.77/MWh at the PJM West hub in Western Pennsylvania. In early May 2022, it peaked at $88.35/MWh, a nearly three-fold increase. This rapid rise in electricity futures has created sticker shock for many electricity and natural gas buyers over the last year. And while this may not be news, some buyers may be surprised to learn that spot electricity prices in PJM are at their highest levels in over ten years.

The All-Electric Building Act, known as New York S6843C, has died on the proverbial vine without getting a vote from the full New York State Senate or Assembly.

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A greenhouse gas (GHG) is any gas in the atmosphere that absorbs thermal energy (heat) emitted from the earth’s surface and reflects it back to the earth’s surface. Certain gases serve as a trap for this thermal radiation which warms the atmosphere. GHGs include water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). While all these gases are naturally occurring, human activity since the advent of the Industrial Revolution has significantly added to the GHGs that are generated through various machines and industrial processes. Today, businesses and other organizations are trying to do their part to fight climate change by limiting and reducing the GHGs that are produced and released into the atmosphere.

Over the last year, forward electricity prices in ERCOT have continued to climb and set new highs every month. Figure 1 shows the price of wholesale electricity for calendar years 2023 through 2026 over the last 12 months. Notice that beginning in March, the rate of price increase has accelerated with the market setting new highs, followed by a slight correction and again testing new highs in the following month. Any trader will affirm that this is not sustainable in the long term and at some point, a downward move was inevitable. That move began in the middle of June. And as shown in Figure 1, prices have fallen over the next four calendar years. The most dramatic move can be seen in the 12-month strip for calendar year 2023. On June 14, calendar year 2023 was trading at $72.87/MWh. On June 27, 2022, that same calendar strip was trading at $52.39/MWh – a decrease of 28% over a two-week period.

On Wednesday, June 8, 2022, from 10:00 AM to about 12:00 PM CDT, the July contract for NYMEX Henry Hub was trading around $9.60 per MMBtu. Even so, $9.60 is not an all-time high price for NYMEX Henry Hub. During the fall of 2005, after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita significantly reduced oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the Henry Hub contract settled above $9.60 from September through January before settling back down below $9.00 in February 2006. Additionally, during the spring and summer of 2008, April through August settled above $9.00. Since September 2008, no month has settled above $9.00. So, on the morning of June 8, after rallying up 30¢ from the previous night’s closing price of $9.30, it looked like natural gas would again test the $10 mark for the first time in nearly 15 years. Then there was an explosion at a plant due South of Houston, near a small town called Freeport, Texas.

On June 21, 2022, PJM posted the results of its capacity auction, also known as the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM), for the planning year June 2023 to May 2024. The execution of this auction has been postponed multiple times over the last few years due to FERC rulings on the validity of the PJM auction’s design. Differences between FERC and PJM seem to have finally been resolved to the extent to allow the auction to proceed. This is important because these latest auction results give the market some much-needed clarity into future capacity costs, which are a major cost component of next year’s overall electricity costs for all retail customers in PJM states.