1 min read

Can NYC Go All-Electric?

By 5 on June 29, 2022

The All-Electric Building Act, known as New York S6843C, has died on the proverbial vine without getting a vote from the full New York State Senate or Assembly.

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Topics: Markets NYISO
4 min read

Recent Events Cause Gas Correction

By 5 on June 29, 2022

On Wednesday, June 8, 2022, from 10:00 AM to about 12:00 PM CDT, the July contract for NYMEX Henry Hub was trading around $9.60 per MMBtu. Even so, $9.60 is not an all-time high price for NYMEX Henry Hub. During the fall of 2005, after Hurricanes Katrina and Rita significantly reduced oil and gas production in the Gulf of Mexico, the Henry Hub contract settled above $9.60 from September through January before settling back down below $9.00 in February 2006. Additionally, during the spring and summer of 2008, April through August settled above $9.00. Since September 2008, no month has settled above $9.00. So, on the morning of June 8, after rallying up 30¢ from the previous night’s closing price of $9.30, it looked like natural gas would again test the $10 mark for the first time in nearly 15 years. Then there was an explosion at a plant due South of Houston, near a small town called Freeport, Texas.

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Topics: Markets Natural Gas
3 min read

Record Lows for Capacity Auction

By 5 on June 29, 2022

On June 21, 2022, PJM posted the results of its capacity auction, also known as the Reliability Pricing Model (RPM), for the planning year June 2023 to May 2024. The execution of this auction has been postponed multiple times over the last few years due to FERC rulings on the validity of the PJM auction’s design. Differences between FERC and PJM seem to have finally been resolved to the extent to allow the auction to proceed. This is important because these latest auction results give the market some much-needed clarity into future capacity costs, which are a major cost component of next year’s overall electricity costs for all retail customers in PJM states.

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Topics: Markets PJM
4 min read

What does SARA think?

By 5 on May 31, 2022

A Review of ERCOT's Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy report for Summer 2022

The Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy report, otherwise known as SARA, is a quarterly publication from ERCOT that gives its assessment of the short-term risk of Energy Emergency Alerts. This assessment looks at both load growth and peak demand forecasts, along with generation capacity and probability of availability to determine the potential for the state’s power grid to run out of power when it is needed the most. In May, ERCOT published the SARA report for this summer, with the following highlights.

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Topics: Markets ERCOT
4 min read

Coincidental Peaks Should Peak Your Interest

By 5 on May 31, 2022

An Overview of Coincidental Peak Costs by ISO

Coincidental Peak (CP) is the measurement of an electricity meter’s actual usage at the time of the regional grid’s highest demand and determining that meter's share of the entire grid’s demand. This concept of identifying a facility’s share of the grid’s total maximum demand is often used in determining the allocation of specific cost components. The specific methodology of how that equation works and which cost components it impacts varies from region to region, and often even utility to utility, and even by customer class, but the overall concept is the same. In this post, we explain how this works in each of the major, deregulated electricity regions, and detail which costs are the most impacted by this variable.

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Topics: Markets PJM NYISO ERCOT Demand Response Resiliency
3 min read

Potential Impacts of Electrification

By 5 on May 31, 2022

A Review of Resources Adequacy Risk in PJM

On May 17, 2022, PJM released the second phase of its “living study”, titled Energy Transition in PJM: Emerging Characteristics of a Decarbonizing Grid, which analyses the potential impacts associated with the evolving resource mix. The report, which follows the initial framework released in December 2021, studies three scenarios: Base, Policy, and Accelerated (see Figure 1). Each scenario represents an increasing amount of annual energy in PJM served by carbon-free generation in 2035: 40%, 50%, and 70% respectively. For reference, according to Monitoring Analytics, the grid operator’s market monitor, in 2021 39% of the power produced in PJM was from carbon-free resources.

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Topics: Markets PJM
4 min read

All Bull No Bear

By 5 on May 31, 2022

Natural Gas Update for May 2022

This past month, the US natural gas market continued the recent trend that was established in mid-February. Strong bullish tendencies set new highs and blew past previous resistance levels (ceilings or limits to the upside) while also setting new support levels for any possible retracement in the future. Figure 1 shows how the June contract settled with daily candlestick bars. And while the curve seems to have given up its exponential shape from early April, it now appears to maintain a linear upward trend. The previous two market retracements during this sustained rally both took place directly after touching the psychological resistance levels of $8.00 in mid-April, and again at $9.00 in early May, otherwise, the market has been on a consistent upward trend.

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Topics: Markets Natural Gas
3 min read

Bull Market Mitigation Strategies

By 5 on May 31, 2022

NYISO Power Market Update for May 2022

Near-term electricity prices in New York City continue to climb like an Aaron Judge home run that has not reached the apex of its arc. Figure 1 shows calendar year strip prices for 2023 (blue line) through 2026 (yellow line). Despite a short-lived correction in the middle of May, price movements have mostly been in one direction over the last year.

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Topics: Markets NYISO
2 min read

Volatility Demands Smarter Strategy

By 5 on April 29, 2022

If you have been shopping for retail power in Texas, then what we are about to report will not come as a surprise. However, if you have not seen wholesale power prices in ERCOT in a few months, you should probably sit down before you continue.

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Topics: Markets ERCOT
2 min read

Capacity Clears at Record Lows

By 5 on April 29, 2022

On April 1, 2022, the NYISO published the results of the six-month capacity Strip Auction for this coming summer period (May through October), establishing the first auction-based price signal for capacity for the upcoming months. This is important because capacity is the second largest cost component in a retail electricity contract. Often, when the wholesale price of energy increases, capacity prices decrease. Many expected lower capacity prices given how high wholesale power prices in the state have been, and that is exactly what happened with this most recent auction.

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Topics: Markets NYISO
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