Coincident Peak Alert, PJM and ERCOT, June 29 – July 3, 2020

With temperatures climbing nationwide, we are predicting some Coincident Peak (“CP”) alert activity this week. For clients looking to save on next year’s Transmission costs and Capacity costs (PJM market only), it will be important to monitor the situation (especially real-time weather conditions) and reduce energy consumption in the late afternoon hours, to the extent possible.

Clients located in PJM: High threats today, June 29, and Thursday, July 2

• Current peak demand = 131.57 GW (6/10/2020)
• Monday forecasted peak demand = 132.62 GW
• Thursday (June 30) forecasted peak demand = 131.76 GW

Clients located in ERCOT: High threat tomorrow, June 30, for the June CP, then again on Wednesday and Thursday for the July CP

• Current June peak demand = 67.83 GW
• Tuesday (June 30) forecasted peak demand = 67.79 GW between 5:00-6:00 PM
  • Note: this continues the trend of system-wide peaks occurring later in the day than in years past
• Wednesday (July 1) forecasted peak demand = 71.43 GW between 4:00-5:00 PM
  • Note: while this is a strong load forecast, it is rare for the July CP to occur on the first day of the month – it’ll only be getting hotter and hotter in Texas as we progress through July. However, given the observed spikes in COVID-19 cases across Texas, the risk of further economic shutdowns over the next few weeks is real, which is bearish for peak demand. This sentiment already exists in the market, as witnessed by last week’s sell-off in the July/August on-peak heat rates.

Reach out to your energy advisor at 5 or contact us for more details.