Calling the August Coincident Peak (CP) this week is like trying to predict whether or not we’ll have any college football this year 😟
Indeed, we set a new monthly peak yesterday at 71,600 MW, but today’s load is forecast to exceed that at 73,068 MW. We haven’t seen data yet on how much load was curtailed yesterday chasing the CP but, if history is any guide, it was probably several hundred megawatts – not enough to make up the 1,200 MW difference between yesterday’s peak and today’s forecasted peak.
Today should set the new August CP unless we get sustained afternoon rain in Houston. That said, high CP threats remain in place for the rest of the week. To get a sense of how difficult it is to forecast which day will be the CP this week, see the graphic in Figure 1 which shows ERCOT’s 7-day load forecast, with forecast peaks this week all within 1% of each other.
Figure 1: ERCOT Hourly Load Forecast for August 11 -18, 2020, from 5
We advise clients to curtail electricity usage this afternoon between 3:00-6:00 PM. Remember that every kilowatt in reduced demand matters in terms of transmission cost savings in 2021. Please let us know if you have any questions and we’ll continue providing updates over the coming days.
Reach out to your energy advisor or contact us for more details.