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Coincident Peak Update Alert for ERCOT, for August 10-14, 2020

August 12, 2020


Calling the August Coincident Peak (CP) this week is like trying to predict whether or not we’ll have any college football this year 😟

Indeed, we set a new monthly peak yesterday at 71,600 MW, but today’s load is forecast to exceed that at 73,068 MW. We haven’t seen data yet on how much load was curtailed yesterday chasing the CP but, if history is any guide, it was probably several hundred megawatts – not enough to make up the 1,200 MW difference between yesterday’s peak and today’s forecasted peak.

Today should set the new August CP unless we get sustained afternoon rain in Houston. That said, high CP threats remain in place for the rest of the week. To get a sense of how difficult it is to forecast which day will be the CP this week, see the graphic in Figure 1 which shows ERCOT’s 7-day load forecast, with forecast peaks this week all within 1% of each other.

cp alert for ercot 8.11.20 v3

Figure 1: ERCOT Hourly Load Forecast for August 11 -18, 2020, from 5

We advise clients to curtail electricity usage this afternoon between 3:00-6:00 PM. Remember that every kilowatt in reduced demand matters in terms of transmission cost savings in 2021. Please let us know if you have any questions and we’ll continue providing updates over the coming days.

Reach out to your energy advisor or contact us for more details. 

Topics: Markets ERCOT

Written by 5

Founded in 2011, 5 comprises a team of energy innovators, commodity traders, analysts, engineers, and former energy supplier executives. Together, they serve a broad array of private and public sector clients throughout the United States and Mexico, providing strategic advice on energy-related matters including procurement, demand-side management, rate optimization, regulatory intervention, benchmarking, bill auditing, RFP management, sustainability planning services, renewable power, and distributed generation. With an eye on growth, 5 has initiated a number of strategic partnerships and acquisitions, including the 2019 acquisition of Luthin Associates. 5 has been named to the Inc. 5000 list of fastest-growing companies in the U.S. for five consecutive years. The firm has also received numerous accolades and national awards for its corporate culture, leadership and innovation, including 5 consecutive years as a top 10 Best Company to Work for in Texas according to Texas Monthly Magazine.