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Coincident Peak Alert, PJM and ERCOT, June 29 – July 3, 2020

June 29, 2020

CP - ERCOT and PJMWith temperatures climbing nationwide, we are predicting some Coincident Peak (“CP”) alert activity this week. For clients looking to save on next year’s Transmission costs and Capacity costs (PJM market only), it will be important to monitor the situation (especially real-time weather conditions) and reduce energy consumption in the late afternoon hours, to the extent possible.

Clients located in PJM: High threats today, June 29, and Thursday, July 2

  • Current peak demand = 131.57 GW (6/10/2020)
  • Monday forecasted peak demand = 132.62 GW
  • Thursday (June 30) forecasted peak demand = 131.76 GW

Clients located in ERCOT: High threat tomorrow, June 30, for the June CP, then again on Wednesday and Thursday for the July CP

  • Current June peak demand = 67.83 GW
  • Tuesday (June 30) forecasted peak demand = 67.79 GW between 5:00-6:00 PM
    • Note: this continues the trend of system-wide peaks occurring later in the day than in years past
  • Wednesday (July 1) forecasted peak demand = 71.43 GW between 4:00-5:00 PM
    • Note: while this is a strong load forecast, it is rare for the July CP to occur on the first day of the month – it’ll only be getting hotter and hotter in Texas as we progress through July. However, given the observed spikes in COVID-19 cases across Texas, the risk of further economic shutdowns over the next few weeks is real, which is bearish for peak demand. This sentiment already exists in the market, as witnessed by last week’s sell-off in the July/August on-peak heat rates.

Reach out to your energy advisor at 5 or contact us for more details.

Topics: Markets PJM ERCOT

Written by 5

Founded in 2011, 5 comprises a team of energy innovators, commodity traders, analysts, engineers, and former energy supplier executives. Together, they serve a broad array of private and public sector clients throughout the United States and Mexico, providing strategic advice on energy-related matters including procurement, demand-side management, rate optimization, regulatory intervention, benchmarking, bill auditing, RFP management, sustainability planning services, renewable power, and distributed generation. With an eye on growth, 5 has initiated a number of strategic partnerships and acquisitions, including the 2019 acquisition of Luthin Associates. 5 has been named to the Inc. 5000 list of fastest-growing companies in the U.S. for five consecutive years. The firm has also received numerous accolades and national awards for its corporate culture, leadership and innovation, including 5 consecutive years as a top 10 Best Company to Work for in Texas according to Texas Monthly Magazine.