Coincident Peak Alert for ERCOT, NYISO and PJM, July 20 - 24, 2020

A high-pressure system has settled over the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic which will keep temperatures elevated today and tomorrow. These high temperatures will result in PJM and NYISO electric grids being pushed to the max. In NYISO, peak load of more than 29,933 MW is expected beginning at 4:00 PM today. Between 3:00 -5:00 PM, load is forecast at or above 29,700 MW, vs the current 2020 peak of 28,867 MW.

It is important to note that load this morning is coming in ~600 MW higher than yesterday’s projections, which reflects how warm it is in the New York region today. Temperatures in New York City are expected to exceed 95 degrees. 

In PJM, peak load of more than 146 GW is expected beginning at 4:00 PM today.  Between 2:00-6:00 PM, load is forecast at or above 144 GW, vs the current 2020 peak of 141 GW. The maximum peak load forecast over the next 7 days is 146,860 MW occurring today, July 20. Tomorrow (7/21) will also likely exceed 141 GW between 5-6 PM. Temperatures across PJM are expected to be in the high 90s.

In both PJM and NYISO, the "Coincident Peaks" that are expected to be set today will determine Capacity prices for next year in 2021. We advise clients to reduce energy consumption use this afternoon, to the extent possible. 

Turning to Texas, with a more “normal” temperature forecast across ERCOT this week (highs across Central & North Texas forecasted in the mid to upper 90s instead of the low 100s), ERCOT’s load forecast is trending about 5,000 to 6,000 MW below last week’s actuals, with very small chances of any day this week eclipsing the current July maximum of 74,048 MW, set last Monday.  

The only real threat this week is the risk of low wind generation output during the afternoon peak hours, later in the week. As those days draw closer and wind forecast accuracy improves, we will update you on that risk.

So far this month, tranquility is the word for Real-Time Index prices in Texas. Even with load last Monday almost eclipsing the all-time ERCOT record set last August, wind generation output was significantly above average. This kept a tight lid on Real-Time Prices, with most zones averaging around $20 per MWh so far in July.

Reach out to your energy advisor at 5 or contact us for more details.