Find Us

5 Headquarters

4545 Fuller Dr. Suite 412
Irving, TX 75038
Phone: (972) 445-9584
Toll Free: (855) 275-3483
Fax: (855) 329-3493 
email5@energyby5.com

5 - Northeast

865 State Route 33
Ste 3 PMB 1077
Freehold, NJ 07728
Phone: (732) 774-0005
Fax: (855) 329-3483
email5@energyby5.com

5 - Mexico

CP 11000, Miguel Hidalgo
CDMX, Mexico
Phone: +5595287982
mexico@energyby5.com

LEARN

Category: Markets ERCOT

Coincident Peak Alert for ERCOT, August 10-14, 2020

August 10, 2020

Written By: 5

CP - ERCOT

The current electric load in ERCOT is exceeding what was initially forecast. The current system demand (green line), today’s forecast (blue line), and yesterday’s forecast (red line) are shown in Figure 1. There is a high risk that today’s system load will set the Coincident Peak (CP) for August.

cp ercot chart

Figure 1: ERCOT Load Forecast vs. Actual, from ercot.com

And while the 4CP risk for today is high, that risk will also remain in place for the balance of the week. High temperatures in North Texas will be at or above 100° through Friday. So far, it seems like this will be the hottest week of August.

As is often the case, the wild card may be afternoon thunderstorm activity on the coast. In Houston, there is a 40% chance of afternoon thunderstorms today and Friday. In a week like this, the best way to manage the 4CP risk in real-time is to watch the weather and doppler radar in the afternoon. If pop-up rain showers move into the Houston area (and to a lesser extent Corpus Christi), it will reduce the risk of a 4CP event. Rain in big coastal cities will drive down temperatures and the amount of air-conditioning load throughout ERCOT. If rain showers are not in the afternoon forecast, clients should be prepared to proactively curtail electricity usage between 3:00-6:00 PM each day. Reducing peak demand today will lower Transmission costs next year.

Strong and steady winds should mitigate the risk of high spot (real-time index) prices this week. This will also reduce the probability of demand response events. The “Bermuda High” pressure system remains off to the east, which should create strong on-shore wind flows. This high pressure is expected to be centered over the East Coast by mid-week as shown in Figure 2. This system should generate the wind speeds necessary for wind-generating assets to keep up with electricity demand this week. Real-time wind speed indicators into Texas from the Gulf of Mexico are shown in Figure 3.

cp ercot chart 2

Figure 2: Location of High Pressure Systems for August 12th, from noaa.gov

cp ercot chart 3

Figure 3: Real-Time Wind Pattern, from windy.com

5 will provide updates throughout the course of the week as conditions change.

Reach out to your energy advisor or contact us for more details. 

Other Recent Posts

Featured Image
2 min read

Market alert: Understanding the impact of the 2025 reconciliation bill on clean energy projects

By 5
July 7, 2025

On July 4, the budget reconciliation bill was signed into law by President Trump. Key renewable energy incentives were cut. The Investment Tax Credit (ITC) and Production Tax Credit (PTC) will be effe... READ MORE >
Featured Image
1 min read

Making an Impact at 5

By 5
July 2, 2025

5 was founded with a clear mission: to Help People. We do this by helping clients to manage their energy needs and make smart, informed decisions. We believe that energy has the power to improve lives... READ MORE >
Featured Image
1 min read

Journey to 5

By 5
July 2, 2025

What sets 5 apart from other energy consulting firms? One thing: Better Advice. That better advice comes from the industry veterans who serve as trusted energy advisors to our clients. But it’s not ju... READ MORE >