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Coincident Peak Alert for ERCOT, September 1, 2020

September 1, 2020


Temperatures and humidity remain elevated all across Texas, which will increase electricity demand into the late afternoon. The peak demand forecast today is 70,397 MWs, which is expected to occur at 5:00 PM CST.  This would set the all-time record peak for September and exceed the previous high of 69,187 MWs, which was set last year. With cold fronts in the long-term forecast (woohoo!), this may be one of the hottest days of the month.

One forecast assigns a 66% probability of setting the September Coincident (CP) today. Currently, there are no other high-risk days expected until the second half of the month. We recommend that clients reduce electricity usage between 3:00 to 6:00 PM CST this afternoon to save on next year’s transmission costs.

We also recommend that clients with exposure to real-time index prices closely watch the ERCOT.com website and/or smartphone app this afternoon and try to reduce electricity usage if those prices begin to spike. ERCOT experienced some volatility yesterday in the spot market. We also suspect there were generation and/or transmission outages near the South Texas Project nuclear station between Houston and Corpus Christi yesterday. If those infrastructure issues were not repaired overnight, a repeat of yesterday's volatility is not out of the question today.

Reach out to your energy advisor or contact us for more details. 

Topics: Markets ERCOT

Written by 5

Founded in 2011, 5 comprises a team of energy innovators, commodity traders, analysts, engineers, and former energy supplier executives. Together, they serve a broad array of private and public sector clients throughout the United States and Mexico, providing strategic advice on energy-related matters including procurement, demand-side management, rate optimization, regulatory intervention, benchmarking, bill auditing, RFP management, sustainability planning services, renewable power, and distributed generation. With an eye on growth, 5 has initiated a number of strategic partnerships and acquisitions, including the 2019 acquisition of Luthin Associates. 5 has been named to the Inc. 5000 list of fastest-growing companies in the U.S. for five consecutive years. The firm has also received numerous accolades and national awards for its corporate culture, leadership and innovation, including 5 consecutive years as a top 10 Best Company to Work for in Texas according to Texas Monthly Magazine.